Tallahassee, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

785
FXUS62 KTAE 270610
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
210 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

The 500 hPa ridge axis (597 Decameters) will be near the region
today with the surface high closer to the MS Delta. The mean flow
in the 1000-700 hPa layer will be north around 5 kts. This will
for slow inland progress of the seabreeze. PWATs are 1.5 - 1.6"
near the I-75 corridor, increasing to 1.8 - 1.9" closer to the
Emerald and Forgotten Coasts, where Mixed Layer CAPE increases
to 2k J/kg. Even with ridging aloft, that will be sufficient for
at least shallow convection with isolated thunderstorms. As such,
PoPs increase this aftn once we reach convective temperatures to
~25% in a narrow zone closer to the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts
and extending up to the I-10 corridor. This is above guidance and
our forecast has been biased low recently. There will be added
DCAPE again today, so storms that manage to get tall despite the
dry air aloft could produce wind gusts around 40 mph.

Based on the thermal profile aloft and performance of guidance,
highs in the upper 90s east of the FLint River into the FL Big
Bend with some isolated 100F readings closer to I-75, tapering
down to mid 90s elsewhere away from the coast. There is a strong
signal for mixing again from around Noontime onward, especially
factoring in the deep boundary layer, northerly low to mid-level
flow, and drier air aloft. A Heat Advisory remains in effect from
the southern tier of GA Counties into the FL Big Bend and parts
of the Panhandle from 12 PM ET/11 AM CT to 7 PM ET/6 PM CT for
apparent temperatures/heat indices ranging from 105-112F, but
we may struggle to reach advisory criteria west of Lowndes County
and north of I-10. Nonetheless, it will be hot, with a major
heat risk for much of the region today. Make sure to take proper
precautions, including rescheduling outdoor activities to the
early morning/late evening when it`s cooler, wearing light colored
clothing, taking frequent breaks in the shade if your outside in
the direct sunlight, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable
populations such as the elderly.

The rip current risk is forecast to be moderate at all beaches
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Monday will be the hottest day of the period. The 597 dm mid
level height center will drift west towards the ArkLaTx while
strong subsidence and light northerly mid level flow remain
entrenched through the Gulf coast states, though loosening its
grip the further west it gets. In fact, there could be a few extra
showers or storms along the seabreeze late Monday or
transitioning west from northern Florida to the Florida Big Bend
before dissipating in the evening. Highs Monday continue the trend
of widespread near or low 100s with heat indices from 104-112F
with isolated areas from 113-114F. Went ahead and issued an
extreme heat watch Monday for the areas most likely to reach heat
indices of 113F+ which are the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend and
extreme southern Georgia. Heat advisories will likely be needed
elsewhere. The same precautions from the near term discussion
applies here as well.

Tuesday the column begins to moisten up as PWATs increase above 2
inches. A weak trough slides southwest from the Carolinas and as the
ridge continues to lose hold, an increase in coverage of showers and
storms appears increasingly likely, based on the GFS/ECMWF trends.
Tuesday is a bit of a wildcard with heat advisories and possible
extreme heat but if convection and cloud cover increase during the
day, that may help tamp down temperatures.

Wednesday through Saturday is a return to a wetter pattern.
Troughing will be in place over the eastern third of the US while
a ridge builds out west. Another mid level high center will drift
west across the Gulf, adding a touch of drier air aloft as it
slides by which may help decrease rain chances a skoosh but 50-70%
pops is the norm in the extended. Highs will drop back to the mid
90s each day with heat advisories remaining possible at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Cannot rule out brief fog around sunrise at DHN but probability
is low. High pressure cresting over the terminals will limit
SHRA/TSRA chances today with PROB30 at ECP and VCSH at TLH this
aftn/eve. Winds will veer from WNW to WSW with the seabreeze
passage at ECP this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Favorable marine conditions continue through much of this week as
high pressure dominates. Northerly winds will be in place as high
pressure slides to the west of the marine waters, giving way to
westerly winds beginning Wednesday. Convection over the waters
for the next several days will be isolated at best before a more
unsettled pattern develops mid week. Rain chances ramp back up
towards the end of the period. Generally, wave heights will remain
in the 1 to 3 foot range with locally higher winds and seas in
and near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Despite light transport winds with high pressure near the region,
elevated mixing heights will contribute to high dispersions this
afternoon in Southwest GA and the FL Big Bend, with the potential
for widespread high dispersions on Monday away from the Gulf
coast. A low chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the FL
Counties this afternoon and evening and again on Monday with the
seabreeze, with Minimum afternoon RH values dropping to around
40%. The lack of rain will make for dangerous heat both days, as
high temps top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s away from the
Gulf Coast, with heat indices well into the triple digits. A
wetter pattern returns on Tuesday. Any thunderstorms may lead to
briefly erratic and gusty winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Coming out from a fairly dry period for summer standards today and
Monday, a wetter pattern returns beginning Tuesday through the end
of the week. Generally, 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected over
the next 7 days with isolated higher amounts. WPC continues to
outlook our area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday
as a weak trough moves across the area and enhances rainfall
amounts. From Wednesday onward, a more typical summertime regime
with diurnally driven showers and storms typically diminishing in
the late evenings. There are currently no immediate flash or
riverine flooding concerns through the period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  80 100  79 /  20  10  30  10
Panama City   94  80  97  81 /  10   0  20  20
Dothan        96  77  99  78 /  10   0  10  10
Albany        98  79 100  78 /  10   0  20  20
Valdosta      99  79 101  78 /  10   0  20  20
Cross City    98  78 100  78 /  20  10  30  20
Apalachicola  93  80  96  81 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 7 PM EDT /6 PM
     CDT/ this evening for FLZ010>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-
     115-118-127-128-134-326-426.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for FLZ010>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ155>161.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for GAZ155>161.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Scholl